What the Austin Housing Market Actually Looks Like Now

By Linda Welsh

Specialize in representing savvy Buyers and Sellers for residential, second home, vacation properties, lake and hill country properties, new and existing homes, land and lots. Relocation services include area, community and neighborhood expertise and helping the entire family to find the perfect home to meet their needs and wish list.

Everybody has an opinion about the housing market right now. Your neighbor, your coworker, people who haven’t looked at the actual data in a while. Most of what you’re hearing is based on national headlines that may have nothing to do with what’s happening in Austin, or especially in your neighborhood this summer.

We’re in the middle of the busy season, and there’s been a lot of noise. Mortgage rates have been bouncing around, headlines keep calling for a crash that hasn’t really come, and inventory is shifting. In the middle of all of it, people are trying to figure out whether this summer is the right time to buy, sell, or stay put. I want to cut through that and show you where things actually stand, starting nationally and then narrowing to Texas and Austin.

Home prices are pretty stable. They aren’t spiking, and they aren’t dropping a lot, though we are seeing price reductions on most listings. Nationally, the median home price is sitting around $417,800, up 0.9% from a year ago.

Here in Austin, the average sale price runs just under $600,000, up less than 1% from this time last year. That’s not the double-digit appreciation we saw during the pandemic, and it’s not a huge correction either, because we already had our correction. Austin came down close to 20% on average, and now we’re steady.

The summer pattern is holding. Prices tend to peak in the summer months, and so do sales, and that’s playing out again this year. What we’re not seeing is the runaway appreciation or the runaway sales pace that priced people out a few years ago. For both buyers and sellers, that kind of stability is actually a healthy thing. It may not always feel that way, but there’s some normalcy in it.

Mortgage rates have moved in both directions. They improved compared to last summer, though they’ve risen again recently and are sitting in the mid to high 6% range at the moment, and that can change day to day. Compared to a year ago, the 30-year fixed is still down, averaging around 6.5% in June against roughly 6.8% last year. That improvement put some buyers back in the market who had been sitting on the sidelines. Rates are not going back to the 3% range, but the trend has been gradually improving, and every fraction of a point matters when you’re financing a home.

Buyers have more options than in years. Inventory growth is one of the biggest stories of this summer. Nationally, we’re at about 4.4 months of supply, up from a year ago but still below the 5 to 6 months most economists consider a balanced market. Inventory has been climbing steadily, and buyers are being pickier about what they want as a result. Even though interest rates haven’t come down significantly, prices coming off their peak have opened up more opportunities. Sellers who price correctly are still seeing strong demand, and well-positioned homes are still moving.

The economy is noisy, but real estate is steady. The stock market has hit all-time highs, consumer confidence is low, and energy prices are climbing because of global conflicts. Through all of it, real estate has been one of the steadiest assets you can hold. Homes are still selling, prices are holding, and the people making moves this summer are doing it with better information than we’ve had in years.

So the national picture is clear enough: the market is stable, rates are better than they were a year ago, and there’s more inventory than we’ve seen in a while. But national numbers are only the starting point. What really matters is what’s happening in your neighborhood and in your specific situation.

If you want to know what the market actually looks like in your area right now, reach out. Call or text me at 512-657-4033, email me at linda@lindawelshrealty.com, or visit blog.lindawelshrealty.com. I’ll walk you through the real numbers so you’re making decisions based on data, not headlines.